A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment[redacted NIE summary] believes Iran's nuclear program has stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel are more skeptical.
Intelligence is always a very uncertain and ambiguous exercise, and occasionally features assessments like the somewhat infamous NIE whose 1962 judgment was that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba.
Uncertainty creates perception of risk, and perception of risk lead to behaviors aimed at reducing that risk. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, Iran's regular and Revolutionary Guards air forces remain relatively weak, and Iran's ballistic missiles based on North Korean designs lack accuracy. Still, even a lucky conventional missile could create issues in some Gulf states if it hit important oil-related infrastructure, or hit the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence.
Arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state's real assessment of threats and priorities. It's becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defence spending in recent years. Those expenditures cover a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.
In June 2008, over $10 billion worth of December 2007 Patriot missile upgrade requests in the UAE and Kuwait shone a spotlight on the region's new defense priorities. The latest news involves additional order requests from the UAE for THAAD theater defense missile systems, and additional Patriot PAC-3 related equipment. the requests dovetail with the UAE's moves to become a command-and-control leader within the [Arabian] Gulf Cooperation Council, and are part of a top to bottom moderniztion of the UAE's air defense systems, which appear to be shifting strongly toward American equipment.
A multi-billion dollar Patriot missile contract seems to be locking in that shift, and recent developments in the UAE underscore the strategic logic at work in the regionl. One of those developments is a major spares and support contract to accompany their December 2008 Patriot missile order
In June 2008, over $10 billion worth of December 2007 Patriot missile upgrade requests in the UAE and Kuwait shone a spotlight on the region's new defense priorities. The latest news involves additional order requests from the UAE for THAAD theater defense missile systems, and additional Patriot PAC-3 related equipment. the requests dovetail with the UAE's moves to become a command-and-control leader within the [Arabian] Gulf Cooperation Council, and are part of a top to bottom moderniztion of the UAE's air defense systems, which appear to be shifting strongly toward American equipment.
A multi-billion dollar Patriot missile contract seems to be locking in that shift, and recent developments in the UAE underscore the strategic logic at work in the regionl. One of those developments is a major spares and support contract to accompany their December 2008 Patriot missile order
